ACCL Sales Impact Planned vs Actual Production vs Operational Impact vs Recovery

Executive KPI

Sales Gap Target vs Achievement · bags, with MT in parentheses · 1 bag = 50 kg · 1,000 kg = 1 MT

Production vs Sales Target (MT)

Management Waterfall Planned Production → Operational Impact → Actual → Recovery → Cause-Adjusted

Each step is an analytical estimate built from the plan and the normal baseline model. Not an accounting statement.

Actual Production vs Planned Production

Actual Planned Production Statistical Trend Reference Operational event window

Operational Event Timeline

Management Alerts

Executive Insight Panel

The answer — why production fell short of plan, and whether it is factory-related

Month-wise Diagnostic

Month → Date-wise Analysis with Gap

Gap = Actual − Expected (for Production that is Actual Production − Planned Production). Factory = cement shortage, packer, silo, belt, mechanical, electrical, power, iBOS, labour. Distribution = truck shortage, trawler, barge loader. External = rain, holiday, inspection. Coincidence of a gap with documented issue hours is association, not proven cause.

Monthly Performance Raw → Operational → Recovery → Adjusted → Unexplained

Adjusted Performance is a counterfactual estimate (Actual + estimated Unrecovered Operational Impact), not recorded production.

Monthly Cause-Adjusted Performance

Actual Planned Production Cause-Adjusted estimate

ACCL 3-Month Production Diagnostic

Operational Impact by Event

Combined vs Individual Impact double-count control

Daily Variance Actual − Expected

Above plan Below plan Zero line (expected)

Recovery Analysis

Impact vs Recovered vs Unrecovered

Estimated impact Recovered Unrecovered

Lost vs Deferred vs Recovered

Trend

Actual Revenue (BDT) — right axis Planned Production Statistical Trend Reference Operational impact — factory Operational impact — distribution Operational impact — mixed Operational impact — external only Above plan (no impact)
Bars = that day's operational impact (Expected − Actual, where the day closed below plan and documented issue hours exist), coloured by cause. The teal line is daily sales revenue (BDT) on the right-hand axis — it shows the same shape whichever metric is selected above. Hover a bar or point for the full detail; click to open the date.

Date-wise Analysis

Rows are grouped by month. Click a month row to expand or collapse its dates. Click any date row to open the date detail drawer (expected source, comparable days, event, recovery).
Gap = Actual − Expected. For Production that is Actual Production − Planned Production (the sheet's own plan). Operational issue hours come from the day-wise Plan vs Actual Delivery gap sheet. A negative plan gap that coincides with documented issue hours is not by itself proof of cause. Note: every one of the 92 days carries at least one documented issue in that sheet, so coincidence alone does not discriminate — read the issue hours and the correlations instead.

Plan gap vs Documented Issue Hours month-wise

Plan gap below plan (left axis) Above plan (left axis) Documented issue hours (right axis)

Scatter — Operational Issue Hours vs Plan gap X axis:

Day below plan Day above plan Fitted line Zero-gap reference
Each dot is one day, plotted separately for each month. A negative slope means more documented issue hours go with a larger shortfall — association, not proven cause.

Issue Category Analysis month-wise

Correlation is Pearson r between that category's daily hours and the daily plan gap over the selected period (negative = more hours associated with a larger shortfall). Correlation is not causation.

Day-wise Gap Detail

Expected Source per day, transparent

Hierarchy: L1 same day-of-week normal median → L2 rolling 7/14/28-day normal median → L3 monthly normal median → L4 overall day-of-week-adjusted median. Disrupted and excluded days never enter the baseline.

Day-of-Week Normal Profile

7-Day Normalized Trend actual vs normalized plan

Baseline Confidence Distribution

Analytical Settings

Severity weights (used in Impact Score)

Impact Score = Severity weight × |Deviation %| × Duration factor, where Duration factor = affected days ÷ 10. All three components are shown in the Operational Impact table.

Calculation Transparency

What the tool knows / does not know

Terminology